🏀 Liberty vs. Fire Prediction: WNBA Picks for Thursday, May 14
After the Portland Fire won their first game in franchise history on a buzzer-beater against the New York Liberty, the two teams rematch tonight at 10 p.m. ET (Prime Video) from Moda Center in Portland.
New York is an 11.5-point betting favorite, and my Liberty vs. Fire prediction expects the WNBA championship odds leaders to avenge Tuesday's loss.
🏀 Liberty vs. Fire prediction: WNBA picks
See all of our experts' WNBA picks based on the latest WNBA odds.
| 💰 Pick | ⚖️ Bet size (units) | 🧠 Why I bet this |
|---|---|---|
| Liberty -11.5 (-105 via DraftKings) | 1u → 0.95u | Despite losing to Portland on Tuesday, New York is the decisively better team |
| Over 176.5 (-105 via FanDuel) | 1u → 0.95u | Both teams have struggled defensively but have flashed plenty of juice on offense |
| Breanna Stewart Over 21.5 points (-118 via FanDuel) | 1u → 0.85u | Stewart continues to carry the offensive load with Sabrina Ionescu out |
Total wagered: 3 units | Max profit: 2.75 units
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🏆 Who will win Liberty vs. Fire?
While the Fire's 98-96 win on Tuesday was thrilling, I don't expect Breanna Stewart and the Liberty to drop a second game to a Portland team that clearly has major defensive issues. New York's defense should bounce back, and even an average performance will lead to a double-digit win.
Score prediction: Liberty 97, Fire 82
💰 Liberty vs. Fire prediction & best bet
Liberty -11.5 (-105)
For Portland to hang with the Liberty again, it will need a repeat performance from its offense, and I just don't think it's realistic that the Fire will shoot 15-for-33 (45%) from behind the arc again. Without that type of 3-point production, Portland will struggle to cover for its defense - it's last in the league in defensive rating (123.5).
Even without Ionescu, the Liberty's offense has the talent to extinguish the Fire. New York leads the league in offensive rating (117.6), true shooting percentage (64.7%), and effective field-goal percentage (59.1%).
The Liberty's veteran lineup should run away with this one.
🐺 More WNBA action
For more WNBA action, don't miss my Lynx vs. Wings prediction, which includes a player prop for the WNBA Rookie of the Year favorite.
🔥 Best Liberty vs. Fire player prop bet
Breanna Stewart Over 21.5 points (-118)
No Ionescu? No problem. Stewie remains one of the W's best scorers, and she's been cooking with a higher usage rate while her running mate is out. She's top 10 in the league in usage rate (30.8%) and No. 5 in PPG (23.3), having gone Over 21.5 points in two of three games.
The Fire's defense is giving up the second-most PPG in the W (97.0) and allowing opponents to shoot 54.7 from inside the arc, where Stewart does the bulk of her damage.
Without a defender built to handle the 6-foot-4 Stewart down low, she should pop off for another 22-plus-point outing.
🚀 Liberty vs. Fire same-game parlay
The Liberty are the far better team on paper, with the best offense in the league so far this season, thanks to Stewart, Jonquel Jones, and Marine Johannes. That veteran trio should exploit a struggling Portland defense and win with ease to get revenge for Tuesday's loss.
💵 Liberty vs. Fire SGP picks
- Liberty -11.5 (-112)
- Over 176.5 (-105)
- Breanna Stewart Over 21.5 points (-118)
Best odds: +429 via FanDuel (0.2u -> 0.86u)
💵 My betting record for WNBA picks
All WNBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since May 8.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-8 | +1.34 units ✅ | 10.6% ✅ |
| Player props | 4-2 | +1.22 units ✅ | 20.3% ✅ |
| Parlays | 1-3 | +0.43 units ✅ | 62% ✅ |
📊 Live Liberty vs. Fire odds
📺 How to watch Liberty vs. Fire
- Date: Thursday, May 14
- Tipoff: 10 p.m. ET
- Location: Moda Center (Portland)
- Streaming: Prime Video
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