2026 NBA Draft Top 10 Odds: Will Mavericks Pair Dusty May With Aday Mara at No. 9?
The 2026 NBA Draft gets started tonight at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC), and while the top four picks feel set in stone at this point, there's still plenty of intrigue after AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, Cameron Boozer, and Caleb Wilson are off the board.
Arizona's Brayden Burries, Houston's Kingston Flemings, Michigan's Aday Mara, and Tennessee's Nate Ament enter tonight as the most interesting 2026 NBA Draft top 10 odds contenders across prediction market apps as fringe top picks.
Mara's especially picking up steam with his college coach, Dusty May, taking the Dallas Mavericks head coach job just yesterday. The Mavs pick No. 9 tonight.
📊 2026 NBA Draft top 10 odds
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🔒 The top 10 "locks" in the 2026 NBA Draft
For more on tonight's NBA draft, check out my 2026 NBA mock draft.
| Player (school) | Chance at Kalshi | Price to go top 10 | Where he lands in my mock draft |
|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Dybantsa (BYU) | 99% | OFF | No. 1 (Wizards) |
| Darryn Peterson (Kansas) | 99% | OFF | No. 2 (Jazz) |
| Cameron Boozer (Duke) | 99% | OFF | No. 3 (Grizzlies) |
| Caleb Wilson (North Carolina) | 99% | OFF | No. 4 (Bulls) |
| Keaton Wagler (Illinois) | 95% | 98¢ | No. 5 (Clippers) |
| Darius Acuff Jr. (Arkansas) | 95% | OFF | No. 6 (Nets) |
| Mikel Brown Jr. (Louisville) | 87% | 92¢ | No. 10 (Bucks) |
〽️ Dusty's dilemma in Dallas
One of the most popular landing spots for any player in this NBA draft class had been Burries to the Mavericks at No. 9. The Arizona star has been tagged as one of the safest players in the class because he does everything well on both ends of the court, often earning him comparisons to Derrick White.
Burries' fit in Dallas alongside Cooper Flagg is obvious, especially if the Mavericks choose to trade Kyrie Irving in the coming months. However, yesterday's bombshell that May would be leaving Michigan to coach the Mavericks changed everything.
After months of frequently being mocked to Dallas at No. 9, Burries may no longer make the most sense with May heading from Ann Arbor to Big D.
Aday Mara vs. Brayden Burries at No. 9?
With three of May's Michigan players - Mara, Yaxel Lendeborg, and Morez Johnson Jr. - all being considered viable options between picks No. 8 and the end of the lottery, many expect Dallas and its new coach to be eyeing one of them at No. 9. Mara makes the most sense.
The 7-foot-3 center was a breakout star for Michigan this past season after transferring from UCLA and anchored a defense that was No. 1 in adjusted efficiency. Mara earned Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year while averaging 2.6 blocks in just 23.4 minutes per game.
He's not just a rim protector either, with his knack for passing out of the post making him that much more exciting a prospect. But Mara's unicorn-like moments on the court could potentially make him an option earlier than No. 9, with the Atlanta Hawks at No. 8 making plenty of sense.
As for Burries, Dallas won't be his only suitor in the top 10. He's right there with some of the other guard prospects that are considered top 10 locks, and he could easily go in the top eight. The Milwaukee Bucks, after trading Giannis Antetokounmpo, could also make sense at No. 10.
In the end, I think both Mara and Burries end up being top 10 picks.
Prediction: Burries (70¢) and Mara (60¢) are both selected in the top 10
📈 Fringe top picks: Who cracks the top 10?
Several other NBA prospects sit outside the "lock" zone to be top-10 picks, but Kalshi has them with a better-than-10 % chance of being selected in the top 10.
Kingston Flemings (78¢)
It's sort of a shock to see Flemings trading this far below the likes of Acuff, Wagler, and Brown. The Houston guard has been viewed as one of the top guards in the class throughout the process and has been grouped in that second tier of prospects after the top four.
Though his lack of size (183 pounds) and length (6-foot-3 1/2) are obvious knocks, his first step is arguably the best in the class, and he just earned All-American honors playing for one of the toughest coaches in the country, Kelvin Sampson.
There are enough guard-needy teams for Acuff, Wagler, Brown, Burries, and Flemings to go in the top 10. If Flemings somehow slips to No. 10, I have a tough time seeing Milwaukee passing on him.
Prediction: Flemings is selected in the top 10 (78¢)
Nate Ament (62¢)
The biggest wildcard in this draft class is Nate Ament. He was ranked No. 4 in the 2025 recruiting class with just Dybantsa, Peterson, and Boozer ahead of him, but his lone season at Tennessee was bumpy at times.
The 6-foot-10, 210-pounder had moments where he looked like a future All-Star (seven 22-plus-point games in his final 15 SEC games) and times he looked like the most obvious lottery bust in the class (10.3 PPG in four NCAA Tournament games on 33.3% shooting).
Ament's handle and movement skills at his size are why a franchise will bet on him in the lottery, but in the top 10 of a class loaded with talent? I'm not so sure.
Prediction: Ament isn't selected in the top 10 (No priced at 39¢)
Yaxel Lendeborg (31¢)
The best player on the national championship team, Yaxel Lendeborg's two-way ability makes him one of the best bets to be a productive player in the NBA. With that said, it seems like a stretch that a soon-to-be 24-year-old will crack the top 10 in such a talent-rich class full of young prospects.
Lendeborg likely won't fall out of the lottery, and would be a strong pick for the Golden State Warriors at No. 11 or the Oklahoma City Thunder at No. 12, but I think there's a better chance of him being the third Michigan player selected (behind Mara and Morez Johnson Jr.) than him going top 10.
The only way I could see it happening is if May absolutely loves him and wants him at No. 9 for the Mavericks.
Prediction: Lendeborg isn't selected in the top 10 (No priced at 71¢)
Labaron Philon Jr. (15¢)
This guard class is ridiculous, and nothing hammers that home more than the fact that Philon isn't a consensus top-five guard in the class. He's in the third tier of guards, with Peterson being alone in the top tier and Acuff, Wagler, Brown, Burries, and Flemings being in the next tier.
And because of how much guard talent there is, there's almost no way Philon will go top 10. Despite being one of just three players to average 20-plus PPG and five-plus APG last season, it seems more likely Philon slips out of the lottery than goes top 10, which speaks to the strength of this guard class.
Third-tier guards like Philon, Christian Anderson, Ebuka Okorie, and Bennett Stirtz could all make immediate impacts as rookies in the NBA, and there's a chance none go in the lottery.
Prediction: Philon isn't selected in the top 10 (No priced at 89¢)
📈 NBA mock draft: Biggest favorites to go in lottery
Mock draft based on biggest favorites at Kalshi to be selected at each pick.
| Pick | NBA team | Player (school) | Chance at Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Washington Wizards | AJ Dybantsa (BYU) | 89% |
| 2 | Utah Jazz | Darryn Peterson (Kansas) | 75% |
| 3 | Memphis Grizzlies | Cameron Boozer (Duke) | 71% |
| 4 | Chicago Bulls | Caleb Wilson (North Carolina) | 83% |
| 5 | Los Angeles Clippers | Keaton Wagler (Illinois) | 50% |
| 6 | Brooklyn Nets | Mikel Brown Jr. (Louisville) | 46% |
| 7 | Sacramento Kings | Darius Acuff Jr. (Arkansas) | 56% |
| 8 | Atlanta Hawks | Kingston Flemings (Houston) | 29% |
| 9 | Dallas Mavericks | Brayden Burries (Arizona) | 31% |
| 10 | Milwaukee Bucks | Nate Ament (Tennessee) | 25% |
| 11 | Golden State Warriors | Yaxel Lendeborg (Michigan) | 26% |
| 12 | Oklahoma City Thunder | Morez Johnson Jr. (Michigan) | 28% |
| 13 | Milwaukee Bucks | Labaron Philon Jr. (Alabama) | 18% |
| 14 | Charlotte Hornets | Hannes Steinbach (Washington) | 37% |
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