Giannis Antetokounmpo Trade Winners & Losers: Heat Championship Odds & Predictions

The Bucks finally dealt their star forward, so it's time to break down the Giannis Antetokounmpo trade winners and losers.

With the two-time NBA MVP taking his talents to South Beach, I break down who was impacted positively by the trade, who was impacted negatively, the Miami Heat's championship odds, and my best futures bet as a result of the deal.

📈 Winners of the Giannis Antetokounmpo trade

Miami Heat

Yes, the Heat gave up two promising young players in Kel'el Ware and Jaime Jaquez Jr. to pull off this deal, but any situation where you end up with Antetokounmpo alongside Bam Adebayo is a win. Antetokounmpo and Adebayo have each made at least five All-NBA Defensive teams, and we had already seen that Adebayo needs another star player to make a deep postseason run.

The Heat made two NBA Finals appearances with Adebayo and Jimmy Butler. However, since trading Butler to the Golden State Warriors, they have failed to make it past the first round.

Portland Trail Blazers

You may be asking yourself, what do the Portland Trail Blazers have to do with this trade? Jaylen Brown's the answer. Portland had just a 6% probability on prediction market apps to land the Boston Celtics guard before this deal went down. Now, its odds have doubled, and it's the most likely trade partner for Boston.

The LA Clippers and Atlanta Hawks were reportedly interested in facilitating a three-team deal to send Antetokounmpo to Boston (in exchange for Brown), but with the Heat acquiring Antetokounmpo instead, the Trail Blazers remain the next likely stop for the 2024 NBA Finals MVP.

📉 Losers of the Giannis Antetokounmpo trade

Milwaukee Bucks

The team losing its star player rarely wins the trade (with few exceptions, like the Oklahoma City Thunder trading Paul George for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and five first-rounders). The last time Milwaukee traded away a league MVP, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in 1975, it failed to make the finals until 2021 - when Antetokounmpo won Finals MVP.

The return Milwaukee received in this trade also doesn't create a clear path to becoming a contender over the next five years. Tyler Herro likely will never be the best player on a championship team, and Milwaukee has just one first-round pick from 2027-2029.

Boston Celtics

If the Celtics had landed Antetokounmpo, they would've become the clear-cut favorite in the East over the New York Knicks in the NBA championship odds.

But here we are, and now not only do the Celtics have a Brown problem - as he has made comments that suggest he prefers playing without Jayson Tatum - they likely don't have a multiple-time league MVP they can get in return. The Celtics opened at +550 (via DraftKings) to win outright this upcoming season, and their odds have since moved to +650 after the trade.

📊 Miami Heat championship odds

NBA odds last updated on June 23.

DraftKings' +4000 opening odds for the Heat to win the NBA championship this upcoming season carried a 2.44% implied probability. The trade moved the Heat to +1800, a 5.26% implied probability, but are bettors overreacting?

There are two ways to look at how this trade will impact the Heat:

• Scenario 1: The Heat haven't made it past the first round in back-to-back seasons, so adding Antetokounmpo isn't enough.
• Scenario 2: Adebayo has made the finals twice when paired with a two-way star, so Antetokounmpo makes Miami a contender.

The Heat adding a two-way star should only help their chances in the postseason, when half-court offense becomes more important and refs tend to call fewer fouls. Pinnacle, which doesn't limit or ban bettors, has the Heat listed at +1602, so there could be value at +1800. However, Pinny is only taking $500 a hit on NBA championship futures at the time of publication.

💰 Miami Heat & Giannis Antetokounmpo futures predictions

Miami Heat best bet

While Antetokounmpo will be a huge plus for the Heat in the playoffs - especially in the East, where they're projected to be the third-best team - Miami won just 43 games last season.

When betting into a market like this, ask yourself: What is more likely? That the addition of Antetokounmpo (minus the subtractions of Herro, Jaquez, and Ware) is worth 8.5 wins? Or that the market is overreacting to a blockbuster trade? I'm leaning toward the second.

Best bet: Heat Under 51.5 wins (-120 via DraftKings)

Giannis Antetokounmpo best bet

Antetokounmpo has the fifth-shortest NBA MVP odds at +1400, but I'm not looking to hit a needle-in-the-haystack bet.

DraftKings is offering specials on Antetokounmpo and Herro, and I like Antetokounmpo's -105 odds to record 20+ rebounds in a game. He recorded 20 rebounds in a game last season - and has hit the 20-rebound mark in a game in four of his last five.

Best bet: Giannis Antetokounmpo to record 20+ rebounds in any regular-season game (-105 via DraftKings)