🏈 Way-Too-Early 2027 NFL Mock Draft: Arch Manning, Jeremiah Smith & No. 1 Pick Odds

Everyone always says, "next year's draft class is better," but a year out, that appears to be true for the 2027 NFL Draft class. Following one of the weakest drafts in recent memory, 2027 is loaded with blue-chip talent and major names, including Texas's Arch Manning and Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith.

Manning and Smith are among the favorites to be the No. 1 pick next April, according to the NFL draft odds, and lead off my way-too-early 2027 NFL mock draft.

While I have done preliminary scouting on this class ahead of my annual summer scouting deep dive, this 2027 NFL mock draft should be treated as a guide for names to know ahead of the college football season.

🔮 2027 NFL mock draft: Way-too-early first-round projections

2027 NFL Draft order based on Super Bowl odds, while accounting for playoff format.

🥇 Favorites to go No. 1 in 2027 NFL Draft

Arch Manning, Texas (+165)

• Prospect profile: 6'4" | 226 lbs | 22 years old
• 2025 college stats: 3,163 passing yards, 36 total TDs, 7 INTs, 78.0 QBR

Last April, when I initially broke down the 2026 NFL Draft odds and predictions, I wrote about why Manning was a bad bet to be the No. 1 pick (I also highlighted Fernando Mendoza as being the best long shot ... ignore the Cade Klubnik part). 

This year, I couldn't be further from that opinion. Manning is the real deal, and after a slow start to his first season as QB1 for Steve Sarkisian, he was among the best quarterbacks in the country from mid-October through the end of the year.

Manning's footwork, throwing mechanics, and anticipation as a thrower from the pocket are top-notch. And his athleticism is an X-factor, both in terms of making plays out of structure and when utilized on designed runs. While Manning struggled with turnovers early last season, he accounted for just three turnover-worthy plays over his final eight games.

Poor play around Manning last season slowed him at times; his pass catchers had an 8.1% drop rate, and he was pressured 12.7 times per game. But Texas loaded up in the transfer portal, bringing in Cam Coleman (Auburn), Hollywood Smothers (NC State), Raleek Brown (Arizona State), Melvin Siani (Wake Forest), and Laurence Seymore (Western Kentucky). Plus, the Longhorns return Trevor Goosby and Ryan Wingo.

If Manning continues on the trajectory we saw down the stretch last season, the only thing stopping him from going No. 1 in the 2027 NFL Draft will be him opting to return for his senior season, something both Peyton and Eli Manning did in college.

Dante Moore, Oregon (+500)

• Prospect profile: 6'3" | 206 lbs | 20 years old
• 2025 college stats: 3,565 passing yards, 32 total TDs, 10 INTs, 78.5 QBR

When Dante Moore chose to return for another season at Oregon, it was questioned due to how weak the 2026 QB class was behind Mendoza. However, it was a smart decision for Moore, who's really only had one true season as a starter in college (he did start five games as a freshman in 2023 at UCLA).

A third year in Dan Lanning's program and a second as the top QB in Eugene should help Moore solidify himself as a top pick in 2027. The former five-star recruit is a poised passer from the pocket, who's rarely shaken and can extend plays with his legs when needed, with enough arm to make throws to every level.

While he's not dynamic with his physical tools like South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers or even Manning, Moore is a high-floor QB prospect thanks to his ball placement, touch, and ability to work through progressions quickly. 

He's a smooth operator and one of the most efficient QBs in the country, and has the makeup of a franchise QB. Moore will need to make more wow plays to jump Manning as the favorite to go No. 1, though.

Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State (+600)

• Prospect profile: 6'3" | 223 lbs | 20 years old
• 2025 college stats: 87 receptions, 1,243 receiving yards, 13 total TDs

The term generational gets thrown around far too often when discussing blue-chip prospects, but Jeremiah Smith is shaping up to be one of the best wide receiver prospects we've seen in the last two decades. He's a physical marvel, and his combo of athleticism, size, and production is rare at the position.

Smith has been on a top-five pick trajectory since he was an 18-year-old freshman helping lead Ohio State to a national championship (he had 19 receptions for 381 yards and five touchdowns across four CFP games in 2024-25). His dominance continued as a sophomore, leading the Power Four in yards per route run (3.43), where his explosiveness as a vertical threat and after the catch were on full display.

With elite ball skills (1.8% career drop rate) and the size to bully defensive backs (54.8% career contested catch rate), Smith is the ideal ball-winning X-receiver at the next level and will likely be compared to Julio Jones throughout the draft process. 

While Smith will be a consensus top-three prospect and potentially viewed as the No. 1 overall player in the class, a wide receiver has not been selected No. 1 since Keyshawn Johnson in 1996. It's unlikely the All-American would go over the top QB prospect, especially Manning.

Drake Lindsey, Minnesota (odds not on the board yet)

• Prospect profile: 6'5" | 230 lbs | 20 years old
• 2025 college stats: 2,382 passing yards, 22 total TDs, 4 INTs, 61.3 QBR

Last year at this time, Nate Tice and Cory Kinnan started trumpeting Mendoza as a name to watch in the QB1 race for 2026. After diving into the Cal transfers film ahead of his lone season at Indiana, I highlighted him as my favorite sleeper bet to be the No. 1 pick ... that was before he was even on the oddsboard (he eventually showed up at +20000).

This year, once again, Tice and Kinnan put me on another Big Ten QB flying under the radar, Minnesota's Drake Lindsey. Following early tape study on the redshirt sophomore, I'm sold on him as the QB most likely to ascend to the first round this season ... and maybe even the No. 1 pick.

There's a non-zero chance that Manning will play up to his billing as the No. 1 pick and still return for his senior season at Texas, and if that's the case, Lindsey could end up in the conversation to hear his name called first in Washington, D.C. Even if he doesn't, he has the makings of a potential first-round QB.

Lindsey has a legit arm and lives in the pocket, thriving on play-action passes, especially deep shots where he can show off his ball placement. While his numbers might not seem impressive, there are numerous times on tape where he's making NFL-level intermediate and deep throws that his receivers are letting him down on.

Entering his redshirt sophomore season, there's a decent chance that Lindsey won't be in the 2027 NFL Draft, but he will put himself in the conversation to go No. 1 in 2028 if his strong play continues.