Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (June 25)

RHP Zac Gallen and RHP Michael McGreevy wrap up a four-game set today as I break down the Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals win probability.

St. Louis has a 55% win expectancy over Arizona on prediction market apps, and I like the Cardinals to tie the series today after losing the last two games. First pitch from Busch Stadium in St. Louis is set for 7:45 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited, MLB.TV).

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🏆 Who will win Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals? Live MLB win probability

Over $150,000 in volume has been cleared in this market at the time of publication, with traders projecting a 55% win expectancy for the Cardinals. The cheapest ask on Cardinals Yes contracts is 57¢, and you can immediately get more than $300,000 filled at that price. Each team opened with a 50% win probability when the market launched on Tuesday, but Cardinals contracts have become more expensive as trading volume has increased.

The Diamondbacks improved to 41-39 after Wednesday’s 9-4 win. First baseman LuJames Groover (1-for-3, 2 RBIs) and second baseman Ketel Marte (2-for-5, 1 RBI) hit back-to-back home runs in the fourth inning of that game, capping a six-run frame.

Cardinals left fielder Jose Fermin (2-for-3, 1 RBI) hit a solo shot in the ninth before infielder Blaze Jordan (2-for-3, 3 RBIs) singled in outfielder Lars Nootbaar (1-for-4) to cut the lead to five runs. However, pinch-hitter Alec Burleson (1-for-3) and second baseman JJ Wetherholt (0-for-5) flied and grounded out, respectively, to cut the rally short. St. Louis fell to 42-36 on the season with the loss.

My prediction: Cardinals win (57¢). Gallen on the mound today is a bad sign for a Diamondbacks team looking for a third straight win - something it hasn't done since a five-game win streak from May 23-27. Gallen has given up four or more earned runs in four of his last five games, including allowing nine against the Twins last time out.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals?

Traders are projecting a 52% chance that there will be a first-inning run today. While only a little over $2,500 in volume has been cleared in this market, liquidity is available if you're willing to buy the Yes (i.e., the YRFI) at a higher price. You can get over $2,000 filled immediately at 53¢ and over $37,000 at 54¢.

The Yes opened at just 44% on Tuesday night before money poured into Yes contracts the following evening. Gallen has allowed at least one first-inning run in each of his last three starts, while McGreevy has pitched a scoreless first inning in each of his last six. The YRFI has hit in 54% of the Diamondbacks' games this season but just 46% of the Cardinals'.

My prediction: Yes run in the first inning (53¢). While McGreevy has been solid early in his last few starts, I'm expecting Gallen to continue his freefall this season. He's allowing the sixth-highest expected batting average in MLB, and the Cardinals rank second in xBA - that's not a good combination for anyone thinking about buying No contracts. For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of our best NRFIs today from our MLB expert Dustin Saracini.

📊 Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals

• Date: Thursday, June 25
• First pitch: 7:45 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Busch Stadium (St. Louis)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited, MLB.TV
• Diamondbacks starter: Zac Gallen (3-6, 6.10 ERA)
• Cardinals starter: Michael McGreevy (3-6, 3.35 ERA)